Method

Goal

Global impacts of climate change, such as crop failures or interruptions in the transport chain due to flooding, can also affect Austria through trade linkages and thus pose a potential risk to Austria’s economy. The goal of COIN-INT is therefore to assess these trade-induced climate change costs for Austria.

COIN-INT addresses the following research questions:

1. How does climate change vulnerability vary across countries and world regions and how does this vulnerability change with future climate (and socioeconomic) change?
2. What are the implications for Austria’s import and export channels, Austria’s competiveness and its position in global supply chains?
3. What are the macroeconomic costs of these international climate change risks for Austria’s economy, also relative to the domestic costs of climate change?
4. How can industry and service sectors and Austrian policymakers address these risks?

Methodology

Figure 1 illustrates the methodological approach of the project. Based on international studies on the vulnerability of trading partners, we analyze the current and future impacts of climate change for Austria’s foreign trade (WP2). Different climate scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP 8.5) as well as different socioeconomic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3) are considered. On the basis of available climate impact models for agriculture, water availability, sea level rise, health and labor productivity, WP3 examines relevant impact chains with regard to their relevance for Austria’s import and export flows. In addition, case studies will illustrate individual impact channels using concrete examples (WP4). The relevant global impact chains are finally examined with regard to their repercussions on Austria’s economy (WP5). Finally, WP6 will discuss measures and instruments to reduce these trade induced risks of climate change.

The project is divided into 6 work packages, of which work packages WP2 and WP3 will be completed with in the first project year (May 2017-April 2018) and the remaining work packages WP 4, WP 5 and WP 6 in the second project year (May 2018-April 2019).